EP/G037264/1), the China Scholarship Council (file no. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedĭata Availability: All relevant data are within the paper.įunding: This work was supported in part by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of UK (no. Received: DecemAccepted: ApPublished: May 15, 2015Ĭopyright: © 2015 Zhang et al. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.Ĭitation: Zhang C, Zhou S, Chain BM (2015) Hybrid Epidemics-A Case Study on Computer Worm Conficker. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm’s effectiveness. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm’s spreading behaviour. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing.
Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008.
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